ING Bank of the Netherlands said Monday that it expects China's financial sector to open up without capital account for the time being, at least not this year, which means that the RMB may fluctuate strongly due to foreign capital inflows and maintain its forecast of 6.75 USD/offshore RMB at the end of the year.
Peng Piao, Greater China Economist at ING Bank, said in his comments that it was rare for Yi Gang, governor of the People's Bank of China, to talk about expanding financial sector openness at the China Development Forum on Sunday, because in a weak economy, policy makers rarely talk about market openness.
The bank believes that allowing the US dollar/RMB CNY = to follow the US dollar index is the first stage of the RMB exchange rate reform, and the second stage will be the opening of the capital account, which will allow funds to enter and leave China under less restrictions and allow the RMB to float freely.
"In order to prepare for the second stage and adopt a more liberalized interest rate policy, the governor of the central bank correctly pointed out that China needs more hedging tools to mitigate market risks." "We are confident that there will be more hedging tools for interest rates, exchange rates, stocks and bonds, but not necessarily this year, the market will need time to develop meaningful trading depth," she said.
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