China's GDP growth in the first quarter is expected to hit a record low

                                                                                    INQUIRY

      Announcement: First Quarter GDP and March Industrial Value Added, Investment and Consumption in China
Publication time: 10:00 local time, 17 April
Survey results: (year on year,%)
Prediction interval of pre-median value for the same period of last year
First quarter GDP 6.3 6.4 5.8~6.6 6.8 50
Industrial added value 5.9 5.3 5.2-6.56.0 31
Fixed Asset Investment (excluding Farmers) (January-March) 6.3 6.1 5.9-6.5 7.5 30
Total retail sales of social consumer goods are 8.48.2 7.8-8.9 10.1 30
Note: The pre-GDP is the data of the fourth quarter of last year; the pre-investment of fixed assets is the data of January to February.
Reuters combined the median forecast of 50 institutions shows that China's economic growth in the first quarter of this year is likely to further decline and set a record low, but from the data of March, industry, investment and consumption have improved, and signs of economic stability may have begun to emerge.
"Although the GDP growth rate in the first quarter reported by the Bureau of Statistics may slow down year-on-year, compared with the fourth quarter of 2018, the ring-to-ring trend of aggregate demand growth may not deteriorate any more and show signs of early stabilization." CICC forecasts that real GDP growth slowed to 6.3% year-on-year in the first quarter.
Over the data disturbance at the beginning of the year, they pointed out that aggregate demand growth was expected to stabilize somewhat. Steady expansion of the credit cycle and more active fiscal policy will make the stabilization of the economic cycle more stable. Looking forward, the VAT tax rate and the social security premium rate have been drastically reduced in the second quarter. If implemented effectively, it is expected to effectively boost the growth of aggregate demand and help the recovery of profitability of enterprises. At the same time, compared with the stronger monetary stimulus, the sustainability and "side effects" of reducing fees and taxes to boost aggregate demand are stronger.
Judging from the previous order of slowdown in aggregate demand growth, CICC expects that the recovery of domestic demand growth in the second quarter may be earlier than that of exports.


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