In response to US President Trump's threat to impose tariff rates on Chinese exports, Gao Ting Securities China's chief analyst Gao Ting said on Tuesday that the volatility of the A-share market may be large in the short term and is very vulnerable to news related to Sino-US trade negotiations. Impact, and even the possibility of overreaction.
Gao Ting pointed out that the current situation is not enough to immediately change the original position. Considering the increase in short-term uncertainty, it is still relatively optimistic about the relatively stable and thus more defensive consumer sectors in the recent economic downturn, including food and beverage, Household appliances, duty-free operators, airports and cars.
"If trade frictions escalate, external demand will weaken, and China is also expected to introduce policies to stimulate consumption," he said. At the same time, he also believes that if the trade war is escalated again, the Chinese government will need to increase policy support, including the relaxation of monetary policy, which may lead to a decline in the yield of government bonds.
He also pointed out that although the implementation of the lower deposit reserve ratio by small and medium-sized banks is a requirement for the implementation of the previous State Council executive meeting, from the point of view of the announcement, there is still a stable market expectation of monetary policy and the risk of increasing the risk of trade war. .
The Sino-US trade negotiations, which had been dawning before, suddenly showed signs of change on Monday morning. The Chinese central bank unexpectedly announced a targeted RRR cut in the financial market in the early morning, and restarted the reverse repurchase operation in the open market.
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