CNY = CFXS closed up slightly against the dollar on Monday, while the median price fell 15 points. Traders said that some of China's latest June macroeconomic data far exceeded expectations boosted the popularity of the RMB bulls, and the Australian and New Zealand currencies also rebounded, but in the afternoon, there were more buy-downs and a narrower rise in exchange rates. Currently, negotiations between China and the United States are pending, the market lacks key information guidance, and the passenger market also holds a wait-and-see attitude towards the short-term RMB. Material continuity interval fluctuation.
They also said that although the Fed's interest rate cut in July was almost nail-in-the-pan and partly relieved the pressure of RMB depreciation, the persistence of bonus purchases in mid-year and the demand for low-range purchases also limited the rise of exchange rates. The RMB will continue to trade in intervals in the near future, and the volatility of one-cycle implied options has fallen to its lowest level in two years. It also reflects short-term market expectations.
"The devaluation direction can't break 7, the trade negotiations in the appreciation direction have no definite news, and the market expects the RMB to remain volatile in the range." A Chinese bank trader said.
He also pointed out that the RMB would remain stable even if the Fed's rate-cutting boots landed; it would fall below 6.9 yuan again unless the progress of Sino-US negotiations deteriorated significantly.
Several other bankers told Reuters that RMB passenger volume has shrunk dramatically in the near future, holding a wait-and-see attitude due to the volatility of the exchange rate in a narrow range, while the self-employed side still adopts short-term operation in a day.
China's economic growth fell to a record low of 6.2% in the second quarter, but the performance of industry, investment and consumption in June far exceeded expectations, releasing a signal that the overall economy was operating in a stable range. With the gradual fall of early support policies, China's economy is expected to stabilize in the second half of the year.
In an interview with CNBC on Friday, Navarro, director of the National Trade Commission, said the United States and China were in a "calm period" in trade negotiations. He added that the two sides would soon start face-to-face negotiations in China. According to Reuters exclusive report, a senior U.S. official said the U.S. side may allow its enterprises to resume selling products to Huawei within the shortest two weeks.
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