China's economic growth is expected to reach 5.8% next year.

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      The U.S. announced plans to impose a 10% tariff on the remaining $300 billion of imports from China starting in September. UBS Securities estimates that this will drag down China's GDP growth by at least 30 basis points over the next 12 months, and that the impact on the economy may be concentrated in the fourth quarter of this year. The brokerage reduced China's economic growth from 6.2% and 6.1% to 6.1% and 5.8% respectively this year and next.
Wang Tao, chief economist of UBS Securities China, said in his latest report that although the United States still expressed its desire to continue economic and trade negotiations with China, it was unclear whether the United States really wanted to reach a trade agreement, and the recent escalation of frictions might make China's position harder. The current benchmark scenario is that China and the United States cannot reach a trade agreement in the short term.
"Changes in the U.S. economy, the stock market and the general election may suddenly change the situation, but for now, the possibility of a trade agreement between the two sides within this year or even before next year's general election is diminished. Our new benchmark forecast is that China and the United States will not be able to reach a trade agreement within this year, but trade frictions will not escalate further. According to the report.
UBS expects the Chinese government to further relax its domestic policies, including increased liquidity by the central bank, a further 100 basis points reduction in the year, and increased government support for infrastructure financing. Market interest rates are expected to fall by 10 to 20 basis points. The Central Bank of China may cut the liquidity operating tool interest rate by 10 basis points as the Federal Reserve further cuts interest rates, but it will not cut the benchmark deposit and loan interest rate this year.
However, with the overall economy slowing down further and inflation weakening in 2020, the central bank is expected to cut the benchmark lending rate by 25 basis points or accelerate the marketization of lending rate.


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