In July, China's new urban employment and the unemployment rate in the national urban survey diverged. In that month, 1.3 million new urban employment were at the normal level, but the survey unemployment rate climbed to 5.3%, approaching the annual red line of 5.5%. Analysts believe that the rising unemployment rate is mainly due to seasonal factors in the graduation season. In the long run, although the economy has downward pressure, the stall risk is not high, and the employment situation is expected to remain relatively stable.
They believe that under the impact of economic growth shifting and trade frictions upgrading, it is inevitable that China's employment will continue to face pressure, but the reduction of employment in some industries brought about by economic restructuring is normal and must be accepted. In the future, "stable employment" needs to better encourage the service industry, support the development of private and small and medium-sized enterprises, and encourage innovation and entrepreneurship and other employment support policies or dominate.
"The rising unemployment rate in July mainly reflects the seasonal factors of College graduates'graduation season. The long-term employment situation is relatively stable. On the one hand, the downward economic growth has brought about an increase in employment pressure, on the other hand, the ability to absorb employment has increased with the change of economic structure, and the labor force is declining," Guojin Securities Co., Ltd. Duan Xiaole, a macro analyst.
He believes that stable employment in the future still needs better support for the development of high-quality private enterprises and small and medium-sized enterprises; moreover, the employment index of official manufacturing PMI rose in July, which reflects the improvement of SMEs'operating conditions after the policy shift to marginal relaxation. There are some reflections on employment absorption.
"Macro-economic policies will remain firm for three reasons: first, the rising unemployment rate may only be seasonal; secondly, economic restructuring needs to guide more employment into the tertiary industry; thirdly, the reduction of employment in some industries brought about by economic restructuring is normal and must be accepted," Duan Xiaole said.
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