Estimation of Singapore's Economic Growth in 2019

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      The median estimate of the HKMA's survey of 23 economists shows that Singapore's gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to grow by 0.6% this year, much less than the 2.1% increase in the last survey conducted by the HKMA in June.
Judging from the government's recently downgraded forecast range, the 0.6% increase has just entered the first half of the region. Singapore's Ministry of Trade and Industry last month lowered its forecast range to 0-1%, from 1.5-2.5%.
Sino-US trade wars have affected global supply chains, hampered corporate investment and profits, and hit Singapore hard.
The final value of GDP for the second quarter, released on August 13, showed that the country's seasonally adjusted GDP contracted at an annualized rate of 3.3%.
The contraction was slightly smaller than the government's initial estimate, but larger than the 2.9% contraction predicted by Reuters polls, in sharp contrast to the strong growth of 3.8% in the first quarter.
In the latest HKMA survey, analysts downgraded their forecasts for most major macroeconomic indicators, but upgraded their forecasts for the financial, insurance and private consumption sectors.
The survey predicts that Singapore's economy grew 0.3% year-on-year in the third quarter, up from 0.1% in the second quarter.


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