Collateral damage to the US China trade conflict has hit financial markets, forcing most major central banks to cut interest rates this year.
A Reuters poll of more than 100 analysts on October 18-23 showed little change in their views on economic growth and inflation in the coming year and beyond, despite the White House's announcement of a "first stage" trade agreement with China and the suspension of tariffs originally set for this week.
"The U.S. - China trade negotiations over the past 18 months have become a classic case of 'further steps back'. Despite the encouraging news of recent trade negotiations, tariffs are now higher than they were three months ago, "said Ajay rajadhyaksha, head of macro research at Barclays in New York.
"Our forecast shows that the U.S. economic growth will remain below trend level for most of 2020, and we still believe that the U.S. and global economy can avoid recession in the next few months, but the U.S. will not be the locomotive to lead the global economy like 2018."
The median forecast for the probability of a US recession in the next 12 months rose to 35% from 30% a month ago, the highest percentage in the expansion cycle. The probability of a recession in the next two years is still high at 45%.
75% of the analysts who answered an additional question said that the recent trade development between China and the United States is not a turning point to alleviate uncertainty.
The conclusion of the US economic growth forecast is obvious, that is, from now to the end of 2020, the quarter on quarter annual growth rate is expected to slow down to 1.6% - 1.7%, lower than the last published 2.0%.
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