The ECB is about 25% likely to raise rates next year

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      DWS, the German asset management company, forecast on Tuesday that European Central Bank President Lagarde would raise interest rates in his first year in office with a probability of about 25%, saying the risk of a global recession is very low.
Georg Schuh, DWS's chief investment officer for Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA), said at the Reuters global investment outlook 2020 summit that markets did not seem to have considered the possibility that the ECB might try to get rid of negative interest rates under the leadership of a new president.
"It's going to be the biggest surprise, brand new," Schuh said, adding that in the first few years of MS Lagarde's eight-year term, the possibility of ECB rate hikes will rise. If interest rates rise, it will be the first time since July 2011.
"The probability of raising interest rates in four years is about 50%," he said, adding that it is largely dependent on the economic situation. "If all goes well, it is very likely that interest rates will reach zero." The ECB's deposit rate is now at a record low of minus 0.5%.
Schuh said Germany's growing opposition to negative interest rates could be used by Lagarde, who is good at politics, to try to get Germany to spend more in exchange for interest rate normalization. If necessary, the ECB can keep its policy loose by buying bonds.


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