On December 5, OPEC will hold a meeting at its headquarters in Vienna, followed by OPEC + talks with other oil producing countries led by Russia. The current oil supply reduction agreement will last until March 2020.
On December 5, Saudi Arabia will announce the final pricing of Saudi Aramco's initial public offering, which it hopes will be the largest in the world. The time of listing is expected to be around mid December, when oil prices may be a key factor for Saudi Aramco's listing.
"So far, we have two main plans: to meet in December and extend the current production reduction plan to June, or to postpone the decision to the beginning of next year and meet before March to see the market situation and then extend the production reduction to the middle of next year," OPEC sources said
"We are more likely to extend the agreement in December to send a positive message to the market. Saudis don't want oil prices to fall, they want to support them because [Saudi Aramco] is going public. "
OPEC sources said that the market situation in the first quarter of 2020 is still unclear because of concerns about slowing oil demand and the low level of implementation of production restrictions by oil producing countries such as Iraq and Nigeria, which further complicates the outlook.
An OPEC representative said: "my feeling is to (extend) to the end of June to avoid another meeting at the beginning of March, and if market conditions require, may ask for a meeting..." This is the most likely situation to date. "
At present, it seems unlikely to officially announce a larger reduction in production, the two sources said, but may send information to the market about better compliance with existing production reduction plans.
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