Debt service pressure will increase in most provinces and cities of China next y

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      According to the estimation of debt service pressure of local governments in 31 provinces and cities in 2020 by China Guosheng Securities Research Institute, except that the overall debt service pressure of Shanghai has decreased, the debt service pressure of other provinces and cities has increased. From the perspective of growth rate, the debt service pressure of Jilin, Qinghai and Guizhou has increased significantly, more than 25 percentage points higher than that in 2019, and more than 20 percentage points higher than that in Inner Mongolia, Gansu and Yunnan.
The report, written by Liu Yu, Jiang Dan and Xu Zhenghui, said the criteria included local government debt and urban investment debt. Among them, the debt end is the repayment of principal and interest of local government debt and urban investment debt in 2020, and the revenue end is the general public budget revenue and government fund revenue forecast of provinces and cities in 2019 disclosed in the budget draft in 2019.
According to the index of total debt service amount / (general public budget income + government fund income) of local debt and urban investment debt in 2020, the debt service pressure of local debt and urban investment debt in Guizhou and Qinghai is relatively large in 2020, both of which are over 70%.
From the perspective of interest cover ratio, Qinghai, Gansu and Guizhou are all lower than three times. Chongqing, Guangxi and Tianjin are less than four times. However, Shanghai, Guangdong, Hebei and Shanxi have higher interest coverage, all more than 10 times.
In terms of debt structure, in 2020, the total amount of capital and interest paid by urban investment bonds of all provinces and cities in China will be 2854.84 billion yuan, and the total amount of local debt will be 281.87 billion yuan, both of which have the same volume, but there is obvious differentiation between provinces and cities.
The maturity of local debt in 2020 is more than that in 2019, which is the main factor to increase the debt service pressure of all provinces and cities. In addition to Hebei, Shaanxi, Hunan, Ningxia and Shandong, the proportion of urban investment and debt in total debt service in 2020 has increased compared with 2019, and Tibet is the same as the previous year, the proportion of other provinces and cities has declined.


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