In the first three quarters, steel, building materials and other five major industries contributed more than 70% to the overall industrial profits, the upstream industry is still the main source of new profits. Analysts pointed out that the situation of rising costs and eroding profits in the middle and lower reaches of the industry has not changed, and they expect tax cuts and fee cuts to be further implemented in the future.
"At present, enterprises are facing a double dilemma of financing constraints and slowing profits," Jiang Chao and Yu Bo, macro analysts of Haitong Securities, said in a commentary report. The situation has not yet been changed, and the implementation of tax cuts can be cracked. "
They pointed out that the main business income of industrial enterprises grew by 6.2% year on year in September, reaching a new low in the year. The growth of industrial production and sales continued to slow down in that month, and the price of industrial products continued to fall, pointing to the weakness of supply and demand. Moreover, the profit growth rate of various industries in January-September was less than that in January-August, and the upstream industry was still the main source of new profits. Source.
China's National Bureau of Statistics announced on Saturday that industrial enterprises above the national scale achieved a total profit of 4,971.34 billion yuan in January-September, an increase of 14.7 percent over the same period last year, a 1.5 percentage point slowdown compared with January-August, and a 9.4 percent increase of 77.1 trillion yuan in revenue from main business.
From a month-on-month growth rate, profits of industrial enterprises continued to grow at a high rate of more than 20% in April-June, falling to 16.2% and 9.2% in July and August, respectively, and further to 4.1% in September, the lowest level since March, with profits totaling 545.5 billion yuan.
In the first three quarters, the profit of the steel industry increased 71.1%, the building materials industry increased 44.9%, the petroleum exploitation industry quadrupled, the petroleum processing industry increased 30.8%, the chemical industry increased 24.5%, and the five industries combined to regulate. The contribution rate of profit growth for industrial enterprises above designated size is 72.4%.
Li Chao, a macro-research team at Huatai Securities, pointed out that China's GDP growth in the third quarter fell to 6.5% year-on-year, with demand pressured. Meanwhile, the PPI (Industrial Producer Exit Price Index) rose to a lower level under the combined influence of the cocktail factor and the flexibility of the environmental restriction policy. It is expected that future profit growth will continue to slow down.
"Industrial earnings growth is expected to slow to about 13% by the end of the year, with the industrial data presumably falling at the same time, with GDP growth still at a low 6.5% in the fourth quarter dragged down by external demand," the team said.
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