Liu Shijin, former deputy director of the Development Research Center of the State Council, said that in the next two years, China's GDP growth of 6.2% per year will achieve two goals of doubling by 2020. After 2020, the speed of the medium-speed growth platform will be between 5% and 6%, or about 5%, which is the general pattern.
China Securities Daily quoted him as saying on Monday that China's economic growth is slowing down gradually, entering a medium-speed growth platform, and the center of gravity of this platform may be shifting somewhat. These processes are normal and in line with the law, and the whole society needs to adjust properly its expectations of economic growth.
"This year, real estate investment growth exceeded expectations, but is expected to decline next year, the growth rate of real estate investment has fallen behind, the entire Chinese economy so-called medium-speed growth platform has been seen." Liu Shijin said.
China's economy has gradually entered the medium speed growth platform, and the center of the platform will move downward in the future. From the first half of this year, the economy is running smoothly, but the economic downturn in the second half of this year has been forecasted through the macroeconomic forecast model at the beginning of this year. The main reason is that the growth rate of infrastructure investment has declined significantly, which is influenced by many factors, such as local debt management and so on.
China's economy grew at a nine-and-a-half-year low of 6.5% year-on-year in the third quarter just announced. Industry weakened. The slump in infrastructure and manufacturing investment dragged down the growth of fixed asset investment as a whole. Consumption has not improved significantly.
Liu Shijin said that the short-term economic situation should be put in the perspective of long-term observation, with a long-term perspective on short-term issues. After more than 30 years of high-speed economic growth, China's economy has undergone a transition from high-speed growth of about 10% to medium-high-speed growth in most of the past seven or eight years. This kind of economic growth transformation is completely in line with the law, such as Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore and other East Asian successful catch-up economies have this experience, so China's change is also in line with the law. The whole society needs to adjust the anticipation of economic growth.
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It is worth noting that the slower growth rate does not mean that China's economic situation is not good. High speed and good situation is a basic idea for a long time, or the logic of judging the situation.
"When China's economy enters the medium-speed growth platform, there is still a high growth-oriented inertia in the way we think and work. For example, in some places the growth rate is higher, but it is also highly leveraged, and the growth rate maintained by high leverage is unsustainable. Liu Shijin said.
He said that China's probability of falling into the middle-income trap is small, but we need to be vigilant. In fact, it is not only the middle-income trap, if there are some directional errors at all stages of development, it may fall into some kind of trap.
He pointed out that traps are always present and need to seriously study development policies and discover and correct errors in time. China is now in the stage of service development. The development of service industry needs the development of knowledge-intensive service industry most. For example, the R&D, design, information, services and financial services and other productive services, in addition to the medical, cultural, educational, entertainment, sports and other life services.
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