Monetary easing will drag down the Indian rupee

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      The Indian rupee is expected to reverse its recent gains in the coming year and turn to fatigue, dragged by monetary policy easing; however, the results of the national elections may be a key driver of the rupee's direction.
The Indian rupee was the worst performing Asian currency last year, but it rose more than 2% in March, despite the central bank's easing in February and is expected to ease again later Thursday.
But it is not expected that the rupee's rise will last, because the prospect of India's rupee is weakened by the increased uncertainty in the general election, the steady rise in oil prices and the slowdown in economic growth.
A survey of nearly 50 strategists from April 1 to 3 shows that the Indian rupee is expected to fall by about 3% against the US dollar in the coming year, from about 68.45 on Wednesday to 70.38.
"The forthcoming general election poses immediate risks to the rupee, especially if the election results are contrary to market expectations," said Rini Sen, foreign exchange strategist at the Australian New Zealand Bank.
The Bank of India is not expected to support the rupee as it prepares to loosen policy further to cope with sluggish retail inflation and slowing economic growth.


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