Analysts downgraded their expectations for the Australian dollar, but still expected a moderate rise in the Australian dollar by the end of the year. Analysts also expected the New Zealand dollar to rise, although the market has taken into account the risk of interest rate cuts between Australia and New Zealand.
The median estimate of Reuters'survey of up to 55 analysts shows that AUD = D3 is expected to remain near the current level of $0.7100 in three months, down from $0.7200 in the previous survey in March.
Since the beginning of the year, the Australian dollar has fluctuated between $0.70 and $0.73. Analysts expect the Australian dollar to remain basically within the same range for the next 12 months.
A year later, the median forecast for the Australian dollar was $0.7300, compared with $0.7400 at the time of the March survey.
Given that more and more analysts expect Australia to cut interest rates twice this year, these expectations remain bold. Financial markets expect the RBA to cut interest rates at least once later this year by 100%.
The Australian dollar was one of the worst performing major currencies last year, falling nearly 10% to a low of $0.7017.
The median estimate of the survey shows that NZD = D3 will be $0.6800 in three months and six months, and $0.7000 in one year, which is the same as the previous survey.
The New Zealand dollar closed at $0.6756 on Friday and has fallen in the past month as investors see the possibility of interest rate cuts in New Zealand rising.
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