Analysts pointed out that the short-term impact of pork prices on CPI is controllable. Besides, we can not see other factors that can significantly increase inflation. In the context of the overall demand is still weak, inflation will still be a distance from the target of 3%, and will not restrict monetary policy.
"CPI meets expectations, but mainly contributes to food prices. Previous spread of African swine fever to the whole country affected the listing and supply of**fertile sows and*pigs, caused a gap between supply and demand, and promoted CPI increase," said Wang Jun, chief economist of Central Plains Bank. "Follow-up needs to pay attention to the promotion of PPI by oil price rise, as well as the dual promotion of pork price and oil price for CPI."*
He believes that for the time being, it is not a problem for the first half of the year to rise moderately and control within 3%, which will not cause too much disturbance to monetary policy. The inflation trend in the second half of this year will mainly depend on sows, and the problem is not expected to be too great. It should follow soon. In addition, with the upgrading of consumption and health awareness, people's consumption of pork is also gradually declining.
China's National Bureau of Statistics announced on Thursday that the consumer price index (CPI) rose 2.3% year-on-year in March, returning to the "two times" and reaching its highest level since October 2018 (at that time, 2.5%), with the median estimate of 2.4% in the Reuters poll and a 1.5% increase last month.
Among them, non-food prices rose by 1.8% and food prices rose by 4.1%. March is the off-season of vegetable market, combined with the influence of low temperature and rainy weather in many places, fresh vegetable prices rose rapidly, up 16.2% year-on-year, affecting CPI rise by about 0.42 percentage points; pork prices rose by 5.1%, the first increase after 25 months of consecutive year-on-year decline, affecting CPI rise by about 0.12 percentage points.
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