The Bank of Japan expects inflation to be below target in the next three years

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      The forecast highlights the dilemma facing the Bank of Japan: despite years of pressure on financial institutions from near-zero interest rates, low inflation still forces it to maintain ultra-loose policies.
People familiar with the situation said that in the quarterly forecast released next week, the Bank of Japan may slightly lower its economic growth and inflation expectations for the fiscal year ending March 2020 due to the adverse effects of the slowdown in overseas growth.
These unnamed sources said that the Bank of Japan would also publish its inflation expectations for fiscal year 2021 for the first time, expecting inflation to rise to more than 1.5%, but below 2%.
"Inflation is on a firm footing, but it has not accelerated significantly," said one source. "Inflation will gradually approach 2%, but at best rebound at a moderate pace."
Given that the 2% inflation target still seems elusive and there are growing signs of a slowdown in global economic growth, the Bank of Japan, together with other major central banks, will be forced to postpone plans to end crisis-mode policies.


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