Real crude oil and futures prices show rare consistency

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      Although OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA) claim that the oil glut will increase rapidly next year due to the abundant supply of non OPEC oil producing countries such as the United States, the real market is a different picture.
Traders are prepared to buy oil with lower sulfur content at near record highs in rising water as a new maritime energy regulation introduced since 2020 encourages refineries to use crude oil varieties that produce less high sulfur fuel oil.
However, heavy crude oil with high fuel oil production rate also continued to rise due to insufficient supply caused by US sanctions against Iran and Venezuela.
In addition, the structure of crude oil futures market shows that the reverse spread has narrowed in recent weeks, which also shows that the market's expectation of oversupply has declined.
Indeed, index crude oil futures do not necessarily follow the real market trend. If the trade friction between China and the United States leads to a decrease in global oil demand, or the U.S. oil output increases unexpectedly again, crude oil futures may still decline next year.
The soaring price of real crude oil also has a negative impact on the refining profit margin, which usually causes refineries to reduce processing volume.


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