The data also showed that the producer price index (PPI) fell 1.4% year-on-year in November, with the median forecast of 1.5% in the Reuters survey.
In November, CPI rose 0.4% month on month, 0.1% higher than the median forecast of Reuters survey; PPI fell 0.1% month on month; in November, food prices in CPI rose 19.1% year on year, and non food prices rose 1% year on year.
Detailed data in November:
--CPI rose 4.5% year on year (Reuters median 4.2%)
--PPI fell 1.4% year on year (Reuters median 1.5%)
--CPI rose 0.4% on month (Reuters median rose 0.1%), and PPI fell 0.1% on month
--In CPI, food price increased by 19.1% year on year, and non food price increased by 1% year on year
The following is a summary of analysts' comments:
--Dong Dezhi, macro fixed income analyst of Guosen Securities:
From the perspective of high-frequency data, pork and other food prices began to pick up in the first week of December, but the tail raising factor brought by the significant fall of pork prices in November will pull down the month on month increase to a certain extent. If pork prices rise seasonally in December, the month on month increase of food prices in December may be lower than the seasonal level. In terms of non food, oil prices rose continuously in November and December. Considering the divergent impact of inflation expectations caused by rising food prices on non food service prices, the non food month on month ratio in December is expected to be slightly higher than the seasonality. As the CPI in December last year was about 0.4 percentage points lower than the seasonality, and the base was very low, the CPI in December 2019 may continue to rise to about 4.7% year on year.
In November, PPI began to pick up year-on-year, and fell down on a month on month basis. In November, PPI was - 1.4% year-on-year, 0.2% higher than last month, and - 0.1% month on month, 0.2% lower than last month. In November, PMI of manufacturing industry recovered to above the boom and bust line, with production index and new order index significantly rebounding, reflecting the improvement of domestic supply and demand. In terms of price, the first two ten days of high-frequency data of industrial prices in November continued to decline, and the latter ten days began to rebound significantly, reflecting that the boosting effect of demand on prices began to increase from the latter ten days. It is expected that the PPI in December will rise to a positive value on a month on month basis. Due to the low base last year, the PPI in December will rise to about - 0.5% on a year-on-year basis or substantially.
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