After the first phase of trade agreement between China and the United States was reached, the RMB rebounded rapidly and recovered to the level of 7 yuan last week. Since then, the "7" Curse of the RMB exchange rate has been successfully resolved. Recently, the RMB performance is obviously strong, which has reflected the progress of the negotiation between China and the United States. However, the negotiation between China and the United States is not going to be smooth. As the RMB elasticity continues to rise, the risk of pursuing unilateral bets is not small.
The main reason for the sharp rise and fall of RMB is Trump's effective tariff measures. At the beginning of August, trump announced that it would increase taxes on the remaining 300 billion US dollars of goods exported to the United States by 10%, which directly led to the RMB falling below the 7-yuan threshold. At the end of August, Trump's tariff measures were renewed, with the minimum of RMB reaching 7.1854 yuan. However, with the transition from confrontation to negotiation between China and the United States, and the strong efforts of China's regulators to maintain foreign exchange stability The market is expected to see a gradual recovery of the RMB from its low level, and the central price will regain its elasticity after the middle of October.
Reuters estimates show that the RMB exchange rate CFETS index bottomed at a record low of 90.80 on October 23 (December 31, 2014 as the base period) and gradually recovered, rising by 1.34% to a three-month high. Among them, the performance of the RMB against the euro, the US dollar and the Japanese yen all increased significantly. In the rise of the CFETS index, the appreciation contribution of the RMB against these three currencies exceeded 60%. In addition, the Only ringgit is weaker than RMB, we can see that RMB is stronger than most currencies at this stage.
The RMB rose 1.24% against the US dollar in the past three weeks, while the US index rose 0.67%, the euro fell 0.72% and the yen fell 0.54% in the same period, which shows the strong performance of the RMB. In this period, only the Korean won (1.33%) and ringgit (1.54%) appreciated slightly stronger than the RMB, while other major currencies were weaker than the RMB.
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